Wednesday, 12 March 2014

Jim O'Neill's tips on undervalued growth markets

There's a useful interview with Jim O'Neill on the Grant Thornton website here.

Here's a few choice quotes:

"At current prices at the time of writing, most BRIC markets are quite cheap, both relative to the rest of the emerging world and the developed world. So for me, China, Brazil and Russia look interesting.

Elsewhere, I find continental Europe attractive. For the same reasons – except that people have written off the eurozone so much I think it is probably a mistake – some of the peripheral markets, especially Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy, are attractive."

"Part of China’s problem is that everyone became addicted to 10% growth and that’s not going to happen anymore. There is a new era, which is all about the quality and not the quantity of growth."

"I don’t think there will be another workshop on the scale of China, but a number of places benefit from China’s wage increases. Perhaps Mexico and a number of southeast Asia countries are the biggest winners as they now appear cheap, but even parts of the US will feel the benefit, especially given the importance of design and value added for manufacturing as we progress."

"In a broader context, I am among those that believe this could be sub-Saharan Africa’s ‘moment’, so to speak, as with the benefits of modern technology, the better governance, and with improving infrastructure, it looks quite promising."

"In 2011 alone, the four BRIC countries saw their GDP grow by $2.3 trillion, more than the size of Italy. Adding in the other four growth markets, Korea, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey, the aggregate was around $2.8 trillion, and in 2011-12 together, it is nearly $4 trillion – the same size as Germany! This is not what we traditionally think of in terms of so-called emerging economies."

Here's the full interview. (I think it was published a while ago as the Radio series he refers to is now available here)

Here's a video interview with some further commentary.

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